A series of food shortages whose initial stages were reported in 2008 have continued into the new year, raising concerns about political instability, malnourishment, and economic challenges. Jacques Diouf, Director-General of the United Nations’ Food and Agriculture Organization, issued a statement last week confirming that "volatile food prices and market uncertainties have become major concerns as they threaten not only food security but also social and political stability."
In the past year, food riots and protests have occurred in Egypt, Côte d'Ivoire, Senegal, Burkina Faso, Ethiopia, Indonesia, Bangladesh, and Madagascar, reflecting significant problems with the cost and supply of food in third world countries. Experts believe that as many as one billion of the world’s poor face increasing food insecurity.
The main contributors to the rapid rise in basic food prices include the conversion of food crops to ethanol production, the use of grain for animal feed rather than human consumption, and changes in the international flow of imports and export of basic crops.
The United States has begun to convert significant amounts of its corn crop to the production of ethanol. Soaring fuel prices have made substitutes for gasoline profitable, and fifty-four per cent of the world’s corn crop comes from America’s Midwest. In addition, the use of alternative fuels can have greenhouse gas benefits, although in the short term these benefits may be offset by other factors, like the continuing destruction of Brazil’s rain forests by farmers who plant more crops needed for food.
Another unique aspect of global food pricing structures is the widespread desire in nations with an emerging prosperous middle class, like China, to switch from a traditional low-meat diet to a Western-style diet higher in animal protein. As a consequence, more of the world’s grains are being used as feed for farm animals, further raising the cost of grain.
In addition, three years of drought in Australia have lowered that nation’s food production, causing it to import significant quantities of rice and grain. Flooding and poor weather in China, Vietnam, and Bangladesh have also affected crop harvests. Meanwhile, increasing prices and growing financial insecurity have led some nations to stop exports altogether, further contributing to supply shortages and rising prices.
The United Nations sounded the alarm on global food shortages in 2008, reporting that increased food aid would be required to prevent malnourishment and poverty from devastating huge populations in the third world. Millions of people were raised from poverty to the middle class during the past ten years, and millions of them may be returned to poverty soon.
Some European nations have decreased subsidies given to farmers to leave land fallow, helping to improve prospects for this year’s crop output. A thirteen per cent increase is estimated for 2009. Over the next few years, food-producing nations should be able to increase production to meet rising prices and global demand. However, short-term needs will still be acute, and in the long term, climate change will make some areas less productive and threaten food security for poor nations.
Wealthy nations have also seen food costs rise, but as their citizens only spend between ten and fifteen per cent of their budget on food, it's been less disruptive than in poor nations, where sixty to eighty per cent of one's income may go toward food. The vulnerability of third world nations to price changes has led developed nations to commit one trillion dollars in support on food and trade issues at the recent G-20 leadership summit in London.
